Vote Green in Glasgow Kelvin

It wouldn't be an election blog without a graph talking about previous voting patterns - but what figures are valid?

At the 2003 Holyrood election the Scottish Greens didn't stand in any constituencies - so those figures give no idea of how strong we are in the area. (Interestingly, it's the only election that other opposition parties want to talk about). In 2005, the Westminster elections took place in constituencies with very different boundaries - Kelvin was split across different pieces each of which included very strong traditional Labour areas (e.g. Drumchapel for Glasgow North-West; parts of Maryhill and Summerston for Glasgow North). I know from discussions at the polling station that many people planned to vote tactically to try and unseat the Labour incumbents - in the West End that generally meant voting LibDem. “I usually vote for you but this time I need to try and give Tony a message..” was something I heard outside Hyndland Secondary. Sadly the only message that resulted was the LibDems getting the impression that their support was stronger than the reality...

Well it makes some sense to look at the most recent election tabulated in the Glasgow Kelvin boundaries; the last election where voters had to put a single 'x' next to their only choice. The 2004 European election Glasgow Kelvin results fit these criteria. The turnout was relatively low and people were voting about European representation - both things may skew interpretation - but the comparison is more valid than 2003. In its favour many voters probably realised at that election their ballots fed into a Scotland wide proportional system so they probably felt their decision counted more than usual. This means we get an idea of how Kelvin residents dedicated to voting want to vote if they aren't voting tactically.

The graph tells the rest of the story. The Greens are the party who come second behind Labour in Kelvin - when you really examine which party actual voters actually support.

Kelvin has diverse voting interests and has been known to buck the trend. It's the sort of place which could return a Green MSP.